| Most weekday mornings I get up around 5:00 A.M. | | | | want to obtain an accurate forecast for our |
| to get ready for my work day. Part of my | | | | business. I recommend beginning with employees |
| morning routine involves turning on the television | | | | because they have a direct impact on the |
| to catch the weather forecast. I live in a climate | | | | perceptions of our customers. Regular employee |
| where the weather can be quite variable. In the | | | | surveys (at least once a year) can keep us well |
| morning people may be wearing layered clothing | | | | informed of attitudes and perceptions. Provided |
| and jackets and by the middle of the afternoon | | | | the survey is well designed and properly analyzed, |
| they are wearing shorts and T-shirts. Or some | | | | its results will reveal the key drivers of our |
| days it is just the opposite; you start out in short | | | | employees' behavior. This means we will have |
| sleeves and before the day is over the | | | | what we need to forecast employee behavior. |
| temperature has dropped 20 or 30 degrees and | | | | Surveys help us to easily identify areas in which |
| you are grabbing for your jacket. Precipitation | | | | we need to concentrate our change efforts in |
| here also varies considerably. One moment there | | | | order to get maximum returns. By quickly taking |
| is not a cloud in the sky and a few minutes later | | | | action on survey results, I have seen the scores |
| it is dark and raining so hard you can barely see | | | | of some companies improve as much as 30 |
| to drive. | | | | percentiles within a time span of only a few |
| I watch the weather forecast in the mornings in | | | | years. Pfeffer and Veiga both believe that when |
| order to be prepared for these temperature and | | | | organizations look at their people and see them as |
| precipitation changes. I feel more prepared for | | | | the fundamental resources on which their success |
| leaving the house if I know what to expect. The | | | | rests, anything is possible. However, if we do not |
| forecast enables me to know whether to wear a | | | | recognize how valuable our human assets are, |
| sweater, jacket, or raincoat, or if I need to take | | | | change efforts and new programs become |
| such items with me for use later in the day. | | | | gimmicks and no army of consultants, seminars, |
| Knowledge of the forecast also helps me make | | | | and slogans will help bring about change. |
| an informed decision regarding footwear - Is it | | | | Once we have a process in place for forecasting |
| okay to wear leather shoes or do I need to wear | | | | employee behavior, we must add a process for |
| shoes that are waterproof? Do I need to take an | | | | forecasting customer behavior. Customer surveys |
| umbrella? | | | | can provide us with the means of better |
| Once I leave home and begin my commute to | | | | understanding our customers. One of the key |
| work, I begin to notice other people on their way | | | | pieces of information we can obtain directly from |
| to work or school. Observing them, I sometimes | | | | our customers is their overall satisfaction. |
| come to the conclusion that many of them either | | | | Customer satisfaction has an impact on behavior. |
| did not watch a weather forecast before leaving | | | | Even more importantly, we can also learn |
| home that morning or, did so but ignored it. I | | | | whether our customers plan to return and do |
| decide this because I will see people out in short | | | | business with us again. It takes less effort and |
| sleeves with no jackets with their arms crossed | | | | money to keep the customers we have than it |
| over, shivering in the 49 degree morning. On | | | | does to recruit new ones. Another piece of |
| other occasions I see people trying to cover their | | | | information customers can provide that broadens |
| heads with a newspaper or anything else they | | | | the scope of our forecast, is whether they will |
| can find as the rain pours down on them and | | | | recommend us to others. This may be one of the |
| they have neither a raincoat nor an umbrella. | | | | most crucial pieces of information because it |
| Unfortunately, I observe the same lack of | | | | requires a high level of confidence in the |
| preparedness in some companies who do not | | | | consistency of a product or service. You put your |
| affectively anticipate the behavior of consumers. | | | | own reputation at risk when you recommend a |
| Some businesses try to be successful by looking | | | | business to someone else. What if the person has |
| to other companies as models of excellence. In an | | | | a bad experience with it? |
| article on factors affecting success in business, | | | | A few months ago, a friend of mine |
| written by research professor Spyros Makridakis | | | | recommended a restaurant to me. It was a small, |
| and published in the European Management | | | | locally owned restaurant located in a strip mall. My |
| Journal, this approach of looking for prescriptions | | | | friend told me the restaurant was cozy, the food |
| from past success stories is discouraged. | | | | was excellent, and she had received great service. |
| Makridakis argues that management theories and | | | | Not long after she made the recommendation, a |
| tools are like the fashion industry in that they | | | | vendor invited me to lunch and asked me to pick |
| have their moment of glory and die. He observes | | | | a restaurant. Alas, I suggested the restaurant my |
| that very few survive and sometimes their | | | | friend had recommended. When we arrived, we |
| passing leaves extensive corporate damage. | | | | found the place to be cozy as my friend had said. |
| When reviewing the large number of theories that | | | | We were invited to sit wherever we like and |
| have briefly blossomed from the 1960s onwards, | | | | chose a table in a quiet spot. Immediately a |
| he suggests we avoid extrapolating from those | | | | server came to ask what we would like to drink. |
| past success stories. | | | | Just a moment later, the vendor I was with |
| Why? It seems intuitive that if a strategy worked | | | | looked down and saw something on the table and |
| for others and enabled other businesses to not | | | | determined it looked like blood. "Surely, it isn't...." |
| only survive but also thrive, why shouldn't we look | | | | we hoped. Then the vendor realized there was |
| to these as models? Makridakis advises against it | | | | more than one spot. We decided to move to |
| because the environment in which our businesses | | | | another table. The vendor decided to go wash her |
| operate is continually changing. He purports that | | | | hands and after she returned from the restroom, |
| companies will stand a much higher chance of | | | | I did the same. On the way back to our table, I |
| success in the future if they follow a strategy of | | | | noticed more drops on the floor. Another server |
| expecting change and adopting an attitude which | | | | came and brought our drinks and we made her |
| accepts that future performance will be directly | | | | aware of the situation. A few moments later, we |
| linked to accurately predicting forthcoming change | | | | heard her explain to someone who appeared to |
| and correctly assessing implications. | | | | be a manager or perhaps one of the owners, |
| Thus, Makridakis expects change and believes | | | | that the server who initially had taken our drink |
| that if our businesses are to succeed we must | | | | order had cut himself but was refusing to |
| also expect change and be cognizant of how that | | | | bandage the cut. At that point, we left the |
| change will impact our company's success. This | | | | restaurant never to return. Now I must say, I will |
| expectation of change is consistent with the view | | | | think twice about patronizing a business |
| of many Americans. Recently, the National Political | | | | recommended by this friend. I did tell her about |
| Research Institute (NPRI), a division of the | | | | the experience (later that same day, I might add), |
| National Business Research Institute (NBRI), | | | | and she did not want to return to this restaurant |
| completed a public opinion survey that measured | | | | either and I got the feeling that she will be |
| respondent's attitudes about the economy. The | | | | hesitant to recommend places in the future. |
| sample included nearly 2,400 residents from | | | | Bottom line, if our customers will recommend us |
| across the U.S. When asked about whether they | | | | to someone else, they have faith in our ability to |
| believed the U.S. economy would stay the same, | | | | consistently provide high quality services/products. |
| decline, or improve over the next 12 months, | | | | If our forecasts are going to be useful to us in |
| 40% believed it would decline and 36% believed it | | | | managing our human assets, they need to be |
| would improve, compared with 23% who thought | | | | accurate. To obtain accurate forecasts we need |
| it would stay the same. Over half of the | | | | survey instruments that are of high quality. That |
| respondents (63%) believed their household | | | | is to say, they must be scientifically constructed. |
| expenses would increase over the next year. | | | | Without a high quality instrument, we will not get |
| Americans themselves expect change. In addition, | | | | high quality information. I have a colleague who |
| the NPRI survey revealed that 72% of | | | | purchased an inexpensive voice recorder for his |
| respondents perceived that the economic | | | | work a few years ago. It worked well for about |
| downturn had negatively impacted them. When | | | | 18 months and then quit working. He owned a |
| asked what single factor contributes the most to | | | | number of other products by this same |
| their overall quality of life, 58% reported that it | | | | manufacturer that had held up very well so he |
| was the cost of living. | | | | decided to purchase another voice recorder by |
| The bleak outlook that many in the U.S. have of | | | | the same company but this time he would get a |
| the economy and its impact on their lives can be | | | | more expensive model (assuming that it would be |
| cause for concern for companies. We want sales | | | | better than the first). This new recorder did not |
| of our products and services to increase, not | | | | last as long as the first! It still records but the |
| decrease. But in this economic climate many | | | | sound quality of the recording is so poor that you |
| consumers are cutting back on expenditures. So | | | | cannot determine what is being said, making the |
| how can we obtain an accurate forecast for our | | | | product worthless. So once again, he is going to |
| businesses? The answer is simple: we must | | | | purchase another recorder and this time, from a |
| manage our human assets well. This means we | | | | different manufacturer. |
| have to be knowledgeable of the attitudes and | | | | Unfortunately, I know of companies that have |
| perceptions of our customers. But our customers | | | | purchased cheap, poorly constructed surveys |
| are not our only human assets. We must also be | | | | thinking they were saving money. In the long run |
| aware of the attitudes and perceptions of our | | | | however, they discovered the results were not |
| employees. These two groups are intricately | | | | useful and they had to start all over with another |
| related. | | | | firm and instrument. When selecting a research |
| Jeffrey Pfeffer, the Thomas D. Dee Professor of | | | | firm to conduct employee and customer surveys |
| Organizational Behavior at Stanford Business | | | | it is imperative to hire a firm with: |
| School, and John F. Veiga, the Airbus Industrie | | | | - well qualified consultants (preferably people |
| International Scholar, professor, and head of the | | | | trained at the doctoral level in organizational |
| Department of Management at the University of | | | | theory, statistics, and research); |
| Connecticut, both agree that putting people first is | | | | - survey instruments that have been standardized |
| key to organizational success. Both scholars | | | | based on hundreds of thousands of responses; |
| report that they have seen a disturbing | | | | - the ability to provide you with benchmarking |
| disconnect in organizations in which they ignore | | | | data; and |
| the fact that there is a direct relationship between | | | | - executive summaries that identify the drivers of |
| a company's financial success and its commitment | | | | your sample's perceptions. This will provide you |
| to treat people as assets. The results of | | | | with the depth and scope of information you |
| numerous rigorous studies have led them to | | | | need to get an accurate forecast of your |
| conclude that we must take seriously the adage | | | | business. Armed with an accurate forecast, you |
| that "people are our most important asset" if we | | | | will be prepared for whatever weather conditions |
| want to experience increased profits. | | | | await you. |
| So, it is with people that we must begin if we | | | | |