Waiting For the Other Shoe to Drop in Commercial Real Estate

Anyone who owns commercial real estate knowsfunds as to whether that is constitutional to do so
that there are cycles in commercial real estate.without additional legislation.
There are times when the commercial real estateA more practical approach might be to allow the
market is "hot" and times when the real estatebanks to extend the due date for the underwater
market is oversaturated and is considered "soft."loans, rather than to force a bank to recognize
As the economy has been in a deeper thanlosses at this time. This would allow the economy
normal recession, the commercial real estateto recover and over time, the commercial market
market is also experiencing deeper issues thanplace would recover, allowing the fair market
normal in a soft market. In fact, a congressionalvalues to recover as well. It would also allow the
watchdog panel raised new warnings about theowners of the property to find additional tenants
condition of the commercial real estate market.for the property or sell the property and pay off
In its monthly report, the Congressional Oversightmore of the outstanding balances of loans for the
Panel for Troubled Asset Relief program predictedproperty. This may allow the banks to recover
that the failure of these loans could further80% or more of their loans outstanding, as
endanger the banking system and preclude a trueagainst taking a loss for the entire loan, reselling
economic recovery. The report noted that aboutthe property, and being able to recover maybe
$1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans willtwenty cents on the dollar. In addition, if the bank
come due at the end of their terms and aboutforecloses and cannot sell the property, as there
half of those are considered "under water", whereare few buyers out in the marketplace at this
the fair market value of the property is less thantime, the bank will have to pay the maintenance
the mortgage debt outstanding. The reportand upkeep for the property, the insurance cost
further stated that the potential losses fromand the real estate taxes, as well as a
these loans could amount to $300 billion, whichmanagement fee. These costs, along with the
would severely impact small to mid size banks,legal expense, may force the bank to take a
who have a high concentration of commercial reallower offer than that they would have normally
estate in their portfolios. The concern is that ifaccepted in a decent market.
these banks do not have adequate reserves toHopefully, the federal government will enact the
cover these losses, that there could be morenecessary regulations that will allow the banks to
bank failures, which will adversely impact any realextend the due dates of the loans on terms that
recovery in the economy.will allow the borrowers to pay, which may include
There were several potential solutions that werethe accrual of a small interest amount, e.g. 1-2%,
listed in the report, including doing a "stress test"until three to five years have passed which would
of individual banks whose portfolios contain aallow the cycle to pass. After all, most of the
concentration in commercial real estate loans. Duecommercial real estate loans were good loans hit
to the sheer volume in number of these small toby a really bad economy. In other words, the
midsize banks, it may not be feasible to reviewborrowers did not cause the loans to go bad-it
these banks' records at such a detailed level.was the economy. Enacting regulations of this
Another suggestion is that the federalnature would make the best of a bad situation for
government could inject additional capital into theboth the borrower and the banker, as well as for
small banks, buying their toxic assets orthe overall economy. Absent these type of
guaranteeing loans. Based upon the fact that theregulations that would allow a "lend-extend" type
federal government is considered by manyof loan adjustment, the federal government may
taxpayers as spending too much of thecause the other shoe to drop, which will cause
taxpayers' money already, this may not be aadditional bank failures and additional economic
feasible approach. There are also concerns if theproblems.
federal government "reuses" paid back TARP